In the last two weeks, we have seen a dramatic escalation of the coronavirus crisis, particularly in Europe and more recently in the United States. There are also growing worries about the spread of the virus in developing countries, and particularly in parts of the world, which are known for poor health care provisions and their inefficient resilience against wider health crises.

However, when comparing the spread of the virus, and the number of deaths in several countries, some interesting patterns emerge.

Number of confirmed cases and death in selected European countries, source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (data correct as of 12 April 2020)

Country	Confirmed	Deaths
Spain	166,019	16,972
Italy	152,271	19,468
Germany	125,452	2,871
France	93,790	13,832
United Kingdom	78,991	9,875
Belgium	28,018	3,346
Switzerland	25,107	1,036
Austria	13,798	337
Bosnia and Herzegovina	941	37

The table above focuses on European cases. What is interesting to see is that Germany, Austria and Switzerland are doing particularly well in terms of keeping the death rate low. Remarkably, Germany still has many more diagnosed patients compared to the UK, France, and Belgium, yet its death toll is lower. Many will attribute this to wide-spread testing in Germany, and the isolation of those who have been diagnosed. Similarly, the percentage of those that have died as a result of the infection is low in Switzerland and Austria, two other federal countries. So, does federalism make a difference, and do federal structures in fact help in manging this crisis better? One could argue that federal countries, particularly those in which some elements of health care provisions are decentralised, tend to be better prepared for crises like this one. Here, the principle of subsidiarity, and the need for regional leaders to be accountable to the people seems to be very important.

Yet, we have seen centralisation tendencies in all three countries since the corona crisis outbreak. Federalism, in other words, might have played less of a role than we assume, as central governments have taken over as crises managers, especially in Austria, but also to some extent in Germany and Switzerland. What is more, Belgium, probably the most decentralised country in Europe, does not follow the trend of Germany, Austria and Switzerland, and its death rate is much more in line with other European countries such as France, or Spain.

So, what then explains the differences in the death per infection ratio between the different countries? This is a core question, and much more research is needed to answer it. Surely wide-spread testing and isolation of those infected as practised extensively in Germany, Switzerland and Austria seems to make a difference.    

Likewise, early commitment to strict social distancing measures also might have made a difference, as countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States delayed their lockdowns, they are now seeing substantially higher death tolls. People who died in the UK as of 10^th of April, got infected some three weeks ago, when the Johnson government was still toying with the idea of “herd-immunity” before modelling by Imperial College London predicted that this strategy would lead to some 250,000 deaths. Even then, the government in the UK delayed the closure of main businesses and schools further, losing vital time in the process. This pattern seems to be repeating itself in the USA as we speak.

Of course, other factors, such as the size and financing of the health care system also play an important role. The National Health Service (NHS) in the UK was underfinanced for years before the crisis, so its current shortfalls are also the result of this underfunding.

When comparing these data provides some interesting patterns for researchers in the future. It will raise further questions about the effectiveness of federal governance structures in dealing with such an extraordinary crises as we are witnessing today. If we look at the USA, we can see that another federal country seems to demonstrate that federal structures alone neither help prevent the spread nor a rising death toll from coronavirus. Here, factors such as political leadership and fast and efficient actions in terms of testing and social distancing/lockdowns are of key importance.

Dr Soeren Keil is Reader in Politics and International Relations, and the Director the Centre for European Studies at Canterbury Christ Church University.