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<\/a>1. This is a by election win, not a general election win. \u00a0That distinction is important. \u00a0It is worth repeating this again and again. \u00a0This is a one off election just under seven months before a general election. \u00a0Voters in Rochester and Strood had the opportunity to take a gamble on a known politician with the option of replacing him in a short period of time if it didn’t work out. \u00a0A general election is a totally different scenario. \u00a0Voters consider national questions, who they want to be Prime Minister, what national policies they want implement at a general election. \u00a0For a by election the temptation is to give the government parties a good kicking. \u00a0The voters of Rochester and Strood have delivered a sure footed stroke to the midriff of the Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems. \u00a0But the general election will be different. \u00a0A big international event or a national focus on a specific policy could lead to UKIP being left on the sidelines as voters consider more serious matters that they do not trust the party with.<\/p>\n
2. The value of incumbency. \u00a0Both Reckless and his other newly re-elected UKIP colleague Douglas Carswell were already sitting MPs when they stood as rebranded UKIP candidates. \u00a0The media narrative was very much focused on Reckless leaving little space for the other candidates to build a profile. \u00a0Moreover the delay by the Conservatives in choosing a candidate further exacerbated this recognition divide. \u00a0While the eventual Tory standard bearer was clearly not as good as Reckless, as witnessed in the BBC South East TV debate<\/a>.<\/p>\n 3. Britain is turning into a true multi-party state and the Conservatives and Labour don’t know what to do. \u00a0The two largest parties seem utterly shocked that voters are looking beyond them to see what else is out there in the party spectrum. \u00a0As a means of reconnecting with voters the Conservatives have resorted to imported gimmicks such as primaries, which voters neither want or understand<\/a>. \u00a0Meanwhile Labour are having a fit of paranoia as evidenced by what must be the quickest scandal in recent British politics with Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry resigning after tweeting a picture of a Rochester house bedecked with St. George’s flags and a white van out the front<\/a>. \u00a0Both parties have reaslied that being perceived as being out of touch with voters is their main problem and the reason for UKIP’s success. \u00a0Neither have realised how to change this perception, however.<\/p>\n 4. UKIP \u00a0will be under the microscope as never before. \u00a0A window on the pressures UKIP will face was thrown open on Wednesday when Mark Reckless said that the party’s immigration policy would include “deportations”<\/a>. \u00a0His comments were immediately put down to tiredness by the party but the point is that UKIP’s policy cupboard is threadbare. \u00a0Last week footage emerged of UKIP leader Nigel Farage <\/a>taken in 2012 stating that he preferred a system of private health insurance instead of the NHS. \u00a0The number one issue in the Rochester Strood by election was the local Medway hospital<\/a>. Reckless stated many times that he was in favour of the NHS and increased funding for the hospital. \u00a0But UKIP will have to start to reconcile their many libertarian economic beliefs\u00a0with public support for the NHS and other statist policies. \u00a0Labour believe that attacking them on the NHS will shore up their loss of voters. \u00a0For UKIP they need to start looking beyond Europe and Immigration for talking points.<\/p>\n